Showing posts with label beginning. Show all posts
Showing posts with label beginning. Show all posts

Thursday, February 9, 2017

Recession 2017? Things Are Happening That Usually Never Happen Unless A New Recession Is Beginning - Michael Snyder THE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE BLOG

New Crisis - Public Domain

Posted: 08 Feb 2017   Michael Snyder  THE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE BLOG

Is the U.S. economy about to get slammed by a major recession?  According to Gallup, U.S. economic confidence has soared to the highest level ever recorded, but meanwhile a whole host of key economic indicators are absolutely screaming that a new recession is beginning.  And if the U.S. economy does officially enter recession territory in 2017, it certainly won’t be a shock, because the truth is that we are well overdue for one. 

Donald Trump has inherited quite an economic mess from Barack Obama, and it was probably inevitable that we were headed for a significant economic downturn no matter who won the election.

One of the key indicators to watch is average weekly hours.  When the economy shifts into recession mode, employers tend to start cutting back hours, and that is happening right now.  In fact, as Graham Summers has pointed out, we just witnessed the largest percentage decline in average weekly hours since the recession of 2008…

Average Weekly Hours

In addition to the decline in hours, Summers has suggested that there are a number of other reasons to believe that a new recession is here…
The fact is that the GDP growth of 4%-5% is not just around the corner. The US most likely slid into recession in the last three months. GDP growth collapsed in 4Q16, with a large portion of the “growth” coming from accounting gimmicks.
Consider the following:
  • Tax receipts indicate the US is in recession.
  • Gross private domestic investment indicates were are in a recession.
  • Retailers are showing that the US consumer is tapped out (see AMZN’s recent miss).
  • UPS, another economic bellweather, dramatically lowered 2017 forecasts.
To me, even more alarming is the tightening of lending standards.  In our debt-based economy, the flow of credit is absolutely critical to economic growth, and when credit starts to get tight that almost always leads to a recession.

So the fact that lending standards have now tightened for medium and large sized firms for six quarters in a row is very bad news.  The following comes from Business Insider
“Although modest over the past couple of quarters, it is still worth noting that this is now the sixth quarter in succession that standards have tightened for large and medium sized firms,” Deutsche Bank economist Jim Reid wrote in a research note to clients.
“This usually only happens in recessions.”
Reid is 100 percent correct on this point.  This is precisely the kind of thing that we would expect to see if a new recession was beginning, and if this trend continues it is hard to imagine that the U.S. economy will be able to continue to grow.

And it is interesting to note that job growth at S&P 500 companies has gone negative for the first time since the last recession, and so large firms are definitely starting to feel the pressure.

Simultaneously, lending standards are also tightening up for consumers
“The most notable tightening in standards though was in consumer loans,” the Fed said. “During the quarter, banks reported an 8.3% net tightening in credit standards for credit cards and 11.6% net tightening for auto loans.”
US consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity and is thus a key driver of growth in the world’s largest economy.
Those numbers for credit cards and auto loans are major red flags.

It is very simple.  Tighter credit means less economic activity which means slower economic growth.  The U.S. economy grew at a dismal 1.9 percent annual rate during the 4th quarter of 2016, and it would be absolutely no surprise if we end up with a negative number for the first quarter of 2017.

One of the big reasons why lending standards are tightening is because bankruptcies are rising.

As I reported the other day, consumer bankruptcies just rose on a year-over-year basis in back to back months for the first time in almost seven years.  Commercial bankruptcies had already been rising on a year-over-year basis throughout 2016, and so the fact that consumer bankruptcies have now joined the party is a very bad sign.

And we have also just learned that real median household income declined in 2016
Its official! The spectacular Obama/Fed “recovery” produced no increase in real medin household income in 2016 (the last year of Obama’s reign of [economic] error). In fact, real median annual household income in December 2016 ($57,827) was 0.9 percent lower than in December 2015 ($58,356).
Yes, I understand that there is a tremendous amount of optimism out there right now because of Donald Trump.

But the truth is that it is literally going to take some sort of an economic miracle to avoid a recession.

And if a recession is going to happen anyway, the Trump administration should want it to occur as quickly as possible.

You see, if a recession starts a year from now, it will be much more difficult for Trump to blame it on Obama.  But if a recession starts right now, he will definitely be able to argue that it happened because of the mess that he inherited from the last administration.

In addition, the sooner the next recession ends the sooner the next recovery can begin.  If a recession is still going on during the 2020 campaign, that would be really bad for Trump, but if a recovery is well underway by then that would be really good for his chances.
If you doubt this, just go back and look at the 1984 campaign.  After a very difficult recession, the U.S. economy bounced back strongly and Ronald Reagan was able to ride that momentum to an easy victory.

So this may sound very strange to many of you, but the truth is that if a new recession is coming Trump supporters should want it to happen as rapidly as possible.

Unfortunately, once a new recession begins it may not play out like recessions normally do.

The U.S. government is 20 trillion dollars in debt, we are in the midst of one of the biggest stock market bubbles in history, and our planet is becoming more unstable with each passing day.  So even though Trump is in the White House and Obama is gone, let there be no doubt that a catastrophic economic crisis could literally erupt at any moment.  I continue to encourage my readers to do all that they can to get prepared, because those that are prepared in advance will have the best chance of successfully getting through what is coming.

Unfortunately, a lot of people out there seem to believe that all of our problems have somehow evaporated just because Donald Trump is now living in the White House.
That is simply not true, and we all need to be praying for guidance and wisdom for Trump and his team as they prepare to deal with the great challenges that are ahead for our nation.

Thursday, February 6, 2014

God is Moving - We Are at the Beginning of Something Beyond Anything We've Ever Seen - Robert Hotchkin

Robert Hotchkin:
God is Moving - We Are at the 
Beginning of Something 
Beyond Anything We've Ever Seen
(The Elijah List)

All around the world the Body of Christ can feel the stirrings of a great move of God. We are at the beginning of something awesome, something global, something beyond anything we have ever seen. For years now, we have been believing for it, praying into it, and declaring it. 

God is moving. The key for the Body in this hour, is to discover how to move with Him and follow Him into all He has for us.

It may sound simple: We pray for God to move, He begins to move, we move with Him. But actually the early stages of a move of God can be the most challenging part. So often when God begins to move the response of the Body is not, "Yay! God is moving!" but instead, "Hey! God where did You go?!"

Seeing New Aspects of His Fullness

A move of God by definition involves God moving. Which means we may not "find" Him exactly where (or how) we have in the past – because He is doing a new thing. Mind you, He is not changing, God never changes (Malachi 3:6). He is the same yesterday, today and forever (Hebrews 13:8). But He loves to reveal more of Himself to us in greater and greater depths and dimensions so that we can know more of Him (and thus make more of Him known to the world around us).

Often the way He does this is by blessing us with a season where He seems to not be doing things (or even meeting with us) the way He has in the past. He does not stop being who He "has been," but He adds to our revelation of all that He is by helping us see new aspects of His fullness.

He woos us into a greater revelation of all He is by leading us from the comfort zone of what we have already come to know of Him.

Think of the Israelites in the desert. They knew the Lord as Deliverer, the One who brought them up out of Egypt. And now He was leading them – cloud by day, fire by night – across the wilderness into all He had spoken to them of in the Promised Land. Day by day the Israelites learned to look for and follow the presence of the Lord. Sometimes, for days, He would remain in one place with them, helping them to see and know Him as Provider, Healer, or some other aspect of I AM.

Cloud by DayBut then a day would come when the cloud would move. The Israelites had to be in active relationship with the Lord to realize He was not "where" He had been; they had to be looking for the cloud of His presence each day. When the cloud moved they had to trust that He was still with them and seek where He had moved to, so that they could follow.

It is the same for us today. God is moving. The key to following Him into all He is bringing us into begins with us trusting that – even if we are not finding Him where He "was," He is still present. After all, He never leaves us nor forsakes us (Hebrews 13:5-6).

God is wooing the Body right now in a powerful way. There is a great grace for increased intimacy and relationship with Him – a great grace to know Him in new ways and follow Him into new depths.


ElijahList Prophetic Resources

A Place of Song of Solomon

Prophetically speaking, I believe we are in a place similar to the end of Song of Solomon 2 and the beginning of Song of Solomon 3.

In Song of Solomon 2, the Lover is wooing His Beloved to a new place in verse 10, "Rise up, my beloved, my fair one, and come away," he invites. He then goes on to declare that "the winter is past…the flowers are springing up, and the time of singing birds has come…the fig trees are budding, and the grapevines are in blossom," and then he repeats his invitation for her to arise and come away with him (Song of Solomon 2:13).

God's Arrow of LoveThe Lover is announcing that it is a new hour, a new season, and that he has new things to show her, new places to take her, new heights for them to soar to together. 

She is hearing him on some level (SoS 2:8), and yet at the beginning of Song of Solomon 3 we see that while she is yearning for her Lover, she is still reaching out for him where she has always found him – and discovers that he is no longer there (SoS 3:1).

She has a choice to make. She can continue to search for him where he has been, or she can respond to the invitation to arise and step into the uncertainty of the unknown, discovering him in new places and in new ways (SoS 3:2-4).

She chooses the latter, and in doing so embarks on a journey with her Lover in which she comes to know him, rely on him, and lean into him to such a degree that she is completely transformed – so much so that her peers do not even recognize her when she returns (SoS 8:5).

Like in the Song of Solomon, we have entered into a new season.

The Lord is beckoning us, wooing us, inviting us to come away from where we have been and arise into a new place with Him – a place of greater revelation and demonstration of all that He is.

If you have noticed lately that things seem different, or you're not quite finding God "how" or "where" you have in the past, do not despair; do not be discouraged. He is simply answering your prayers. He is moving. He is inviting you to come along with Him.

Arise Beloved!

Prayer Directives:

So let's pray this for the Body of Christ:

1. Our hearts will be fully His, and we will follow where He is leading.

2. We will discern the times, know His intentions, hear His voice, and follow His lead.

God's Arrow of Love3. We will value what has been and all that He has done to date, but we will also be excited and expectant about what He is doing and what is breaking forth in the earth.

4. None will be left behind, and all will hear and respond to His invitation to arise and come away with Him into this new time, this new season, this new move.

5. That we will love one another as He loves us, so even if some respond to His beckoning at a different pace or in different ways than we do, we will respond in love and with encouragement.

6. And most of all, that the fullness of what He has planned for this season will come forth and that He will receive all the glory and all He is due!

Robert Hotchkin

Email: robert@xpministries.com
Website: xpmedia.com/channel/rhotchkin

Robert Hotchkin fervently believes every Christian is a miracle-working explosion of the Kingdom waiting to happen. His ministry empowers Believers to live fully from their restored relationship with the Father through the finished work of the Cross. His preaching, teaching, and ministry inspires Believers to grab hold of their restored relationship with the Father through the finished work of the Cross and walk the earth as Jesus did – destroying every work of darkness everywhere they go!

Rob is a passionate lover of Jesus Christ and that passion is truly contagious! He ministers with strong faith, releasing revelation, prophetic decrees, healings, miracles, and the love of God. He is a true carrier of the glory and revival. People have been healed, refreshed, set free, and empowered through his life. He believes for Heaven to impact lives and regions everywhere he goes.
ElijahList Prophetic Resources