Joel Rosenberg: What is Putin planning? Massive Russian war game set to launch Thursday on borders of three NATO countries & Ukraine.

What is Putin planning? Massive Russian war game set to launch Thursday on borders of three NATO countries & Ukraine. Here’s the latest. by joelcrosenberg

(Jerusalem, Israel) -- Is Russia preparing to invade another European country, or simply training its forces to do so in the future?

That's the big question as Vladimir Putin prepares to launch a massive series of war games on Thursday dangerously close to the borders of three NATO member states -- the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania -- as well as Ukraine, which Russia has invaded and occupied portions of twice since 2014.

While it sounds eerily similar to the plot of my forthcoming political thriller, The Kremlin Conspiracy, the exercise -- code-named "Zapad-2017" (Zapad in Russian means "West") is all-too-real. It is set to begin on September 14 and conclude on September 20th, and tensions in the region are high.

The Economist calls this "Russia’s biggest war game in Europe since the Cold War."

Moscow says only 12,500 troops will take part, most of which will operate in the country of Belarus, just south of the Baltics and just north of Ukraine. But "some Western analysts, and Baltic State governments...have expressed concerns that the exercise will in reality be significantly larger, involving between 60,000 and 100,000 military personnel," notes Janes Intelligence Review.

"According to the Baltic States, the last Zapad-series exercise in 2013 involved 75,000 military personnel, six times higher than Russia disclosed," says Janes.

Have the U.S. and other NATO commanders positioned enough forces, tanks, fighter jets and other defenses of their own to protect against a Russian blitz? I pray yes, but I'm not so certain.

According to a recent RAND Corporation analysis: "As currently postured, NATO cannot successfully defend the territory of its most exposed members. Across multiple games using a wide range of expert participants in and out of uniform playing both sides, the longest it has taken Russian forces to reach the outskirts of the Estonian and/or Latvian capitals of Tallinn and Riga, respectively, is 60 hours. Such a rapid defeat would leave NATO with a limited number of options, all bad: a bloody counteroffensive, fraught with escalatory risk, to liberate the Baltics; to escalate itself, as it threatened to do to avert defeat during the Cold War; or to concede at least temporary defeat, with uncertain but predictably disastrous consequences for the Alliance and, not incidentally, the people of the Baltics."

Estonia's Defense Minister Margus Tsahkna says NATO has intelligence suggesting Moscow may leave Russian soldiers in Belarus once the exercises are over, Reuters reports. He said Russia will use 4,000 railway carriages to transport its troops and equipment to Belarus, perhaps to establish a new Russia military base.

“For Russian troops going to Belarus, it is a one-way ticket,” Tsahkna told Reuters in an interview in Malta. “This is not my personal opinion; we are analyzing very deeply how Russia is preparing for the Zapad exercises."

Meanwhile, "Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has described Russia's build-up for the exercise as 'preparations for an offensive war on a continental scale,'" reports the BBC, and Ukrainian defenses are being bolstered.

According to the BBC, Poroshenko believes Russia is "using the pretext of an exercise to mobilize and position forces to conduct offensive operations" and that "he could not rule out the possibility that the drill 'may be used as a smokescreen to create new Russian army assault groups to invade Ukrainian territory.'"

I'll definitely keep you posted as events unfold. In the meantime, please pray for safety and security for the people of the Baltics and Ukraine. Please also pray for wisdom for their leaders and the commanders of NATO.

>> To pre-order a copy of The Kremlin Conspiracy (which releases March 6th), please click here.

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joelcrosenberg | September 12, 2017 at 8:36 am | Categories: Epicenter | URL: http://wp.me/piWZ7-8gQ

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Joel C. Rosenberg's Blog: I officially started writing a new political thriller today

New post on Joel C. Rosenberg's Blog

I officially started writing a new political thriller today after months of research. Here’s a quick update. by joelcrosenberg (Central Israel) -- As the new year begins, I'm deeply grateful to be back home in Israel and officially underway with writing a new political thriller. This is a totally new story with new characters (Russians, not Radical Muslims) and a new locale (Moscow, not the Middle East). As I get deeper into the project, I'll give you more details and keep you posted on my progress. For now, let me just say that over the past few months I've been doing a great deal of research, and I'm deeply grateful for a series of fascinating conversations with a wide range of leaders and experts on Russia whose insights have been invaluable. Among them: Stephen Harper, former Prime Minister of Canada, one of our great NATO allies James Woolsey, former CIA Director who served during the administration of President Bill Clinton Porter Goss, former CIA Director who served during the administration of President George W. Bush Lt.-General (ret.) Jerry Boykin, former Delta Force commander Steve Forbes, editor-in-chief of FORBES magazine Andrei Illarionov, former chief economic advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin (2000 to 2005) Meanwhile, of course, Without Warning will release on March 14th. This is my third and final thriller about the Islamic State, chemical weapons, a New York Times foreign correspondent, a Mossad agent, the Syrian civil war, and a series of catastrophic attacks on the U.S., Israel and Jordan. We're working on the details of the book tour right now and I'll share more details soon. —————- You can now pre-order my next novel — Without Warning — in hardcover, ebook and audio formats. It will release on March 14, 2017. Click here for details. Order The First Hostage today — my latest political thriller about genocidal ISIS leaders plotting a terrorist attacks against Israel, Jordan and the United States — available in paperback, hardcover, e-book and audio formats. Order THE THIRD TARGET today , the first in this trilogy — now out in paperback. ———————-—- Would you like to make a secure, tax deductible investment in The Joshua Fund (www.joshuafund.net)? This is the non-profit organization Lynn and I founded in 2006 to educate and mobilize Christians to bless Israel and her neighbors in the name of Jesus, to care for the poor and needy in Israel (both Jews and Arabs) with food and other humanitarian relief, care for Holocaust survivors, and strengthen the Church in the epicenter. The Joshua Fund is a member in good standing of the Evangelical Council for Financial Accountability. Please click here to learn more. Thanks so much! Click here to read the 2016 Joshua Fund Donor Report — and watch the short videos, as well Subscribe (free) to the RSS feed (click here) and receive every new posting on this blog directly via email. Follow on Twitter — @joelcrosenberg

Joel C. Rosenberg's Blog - Why did the Russian Prime Minister just visit Jerusalem and Jericho?

New post on Joel C. Rosenberg's Blog Why did the Russian Prime Minister just visit Jerusalem and Jericho? Moscow is moving aggressively to fill the vacuum Obama created in the Middle East. by joelcrosenberg (Jericho, West Bank) -- Make no mistake: the Kremlin is not waiting for the Trump-Pence administration to staff up and figure out its policies in the epicenter. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev are moving aggressively to meet with Middle Eastern leaders, court them, woo them, sell them weapons, sell them nuclear technology, and whisper in their ears that Moscow -- not Washington -- is the friend and ally they can trust over the long haul. Last week, just days after the stunning American elections, I arrived in Jericho to host a conference of Palestinian pastors and ministry leaders and their wives. As it happened, when my wife and I arrived at the hotel where the conference was to be held, we found it surrounded by heavily armed soldiers. There were new checkpoints on all the nearby roads. There were snipers on the roof. There were armed bodyguards everywhere, and the lobby was filled with dozens of advisors and protocol officers, standing around smoking cigarettes and drinking coffee. Why? Because Medvedev was on his way to meet with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas (aka, Abu Mazen). Over the course of several days, the two leaders discussed the future of Moscow's relationship with the Palestinians, and specifically the Kremlin's offer to host peace talks between Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Abbas also used the occasion to name a street in Jericho after Medvedev to thank him for all the money the Kremlin has poured into the Palestinian Authority in recent years. Medvedev's first stop on this Mideast tour was in Israel where he met privately with Mr. Netanyahu. Officially, they marked the 25th anniversary of the establishment of formal diplomatic ties between Israel and the Russian Federation. But they also discussed Netanyahu's concerns about Russian military involvement in Syria, and the growing Iranian threat to the region, even as Moscow keeps selling Tehran nuclear technology and advanced military equipment. The Russian premier also met with Israeli President Reuven Rivlin (who himself recently visited Moscow). Medvedev also toured Yad Vashem, and visited the Western Wall. This was Medvedev's first state visit to Israel and the P.A. He was last here as a private citizen in 1990. So why did Medvedev decide to come to the epicenter now -- for the first time in two and a half decades -- and just hours after the American presidential elections? The answer is obvious: the Russians want to be the dominant global power in the Middle East. Putin and Medvedev see an enormous vacuum in the Middle East created by President Obama's steady and foolish retreat, and they are making all kinds of moves to fill that vacuum with Russian money, arms and technology before the next President decides exactly what U.S. foreign policy in the region will be. Consider just a few examples of Russian efforts in the region: Earlier this year, Russia agreed to loan Egypt $25 billion to build a nuclear reactor. Last year, Russia signed a $10 billion deal to build a nuclear reactor for Jordan. In August, Russian delivered its advanced S-300 air defense missile system to Iran. This month, Russia announced it may sell an additional $10 billion in arms -- notably tanks and fighter jets -- to Iran. In February, Iran announced it wanted to buy at least $8 billion in Russian arms. In January, Russia agreed to sell 46 attack helicopters to Egypt. In 2014, Russia signed $3.5 billion deal to sell arms to Egypt. Last week, Turkey indicated it wants to buy the state-of-the-art S-400 air defense missile system from Russia. President-elect Trump and Vice President-elect Pence have their work cut out for them. Russia is going to be the big global story in the coming years -- Putin is a Czar in the making, he's an imperialist, he's dangerous. It's not yet clear Trump sees the Russian threat clearly -- so it's going to be interesting to see who Trump brings onto his national security team. Pence sees the Russian challenge clearly. I've discussed it with him, and I'm confident he will offer the new President wise counsel. I'm also encouraged that Trump has asked Rep. Mike Pompeo to be the new Director of the Central Intelligence Agency. Pompeo also gets it. He's a West Point graduate, served honorably in the U.S. armed forces, sits on the House Intelligence Committee, and will bring a wealth of experience to the CIA. I had the opportunity to meet privately with Pompeo in his Capitol Hill office for an hour or so earlier this summer and was very impressed. He's a smart pick, and an encouraging one. Regarding General Mike Flynn, the incoming National Security Advisor, I don't know him personally, but am studying him carefully. We'll see who Trump picks to run State and Defense -- I'm praying they are leaders who truly see the Russian threat and are prepared to give the new President wise and thoughtful counsel. —————————– You can now pre-order my next novel — Without Warning — which will release on March 14, 2017. Click here for details. Order The First Hostage today — the new political thriller about genocidal ISIS leaders plotting a terrorist attacks against Israel, Jordan and the United States — available in paperback, hardcover, e-book and audio formats. Order THE THIRD TARGET today , the first in this new series — now out in paperback — the New York Times best-selling novel about ISIS capturing chemical weapons in Syria and plotting genocidal attacks on the U.S. and our Mideast allies. ———————-—- Subscribe (free) to the RSS feed (click here) and receive every new posting on this blog directly via email. Make an investment in The Joshua Fund (www.joshuafund.net), our non-profit organization to help Christians care for Syrian refugees, educate and mobilize Christians to bless Israel and her neighbors in the name of Jesus, care for the poor and needy in Israel (both Jews and Arabs) with food and other humanitarian relief, care for Holocaust survivors, and strengthen the Church in the epicenter. Read our latest Donor Report, and prayerfully consider making a tax deductible, secure, on-line contribution. Thanks so much! Follow on Twitter — @joelcrosenberg joelcrosenberg | November 21, 2016 at 3:00 pm | Categories: Epicenter | URL: http://wp.me/piWZ7-6d4