Showing posts with label Sunni Arab. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sunni Arab. Show all posts

Saturday, May 21, 2016

Joel C. Rosenberg's Blog: Despite a bizarre week in Israeli politics, Sunni Arab leaders are quietly reaching out to Netanyahu to discuss restarting peace talks

Moderate-SunniArab-leadersJoel C. Rosenberg's Blog

Despite a bizarre week in Israeli politics, Sunni Arab leaders are quietly reaching out to Netanyahu to discuss restarting peace talks based on the “Saudi Plan.” Meanwhile, Abbas signals he may soon step down. Who would replace him?

by joelcrosenberg
Very few Israelis or Palestinians believe the moment is ripe to craft a comprehensive peace deal. Pessimism over the seemingly never-ending "peace process" is rampant.
That said, there continue to be curious developments here I think you should be aware of. I laid out some in my column earlier in the week. There have been more since then. Among them:
  1. Despite a bizarre and topsy-turvy week in Israeli politics, there are credible reportsthat moderate Sunni Arab leaders are actively reaching out to Prime Minister Netanyahu with indications that they are open to making changes in the Saudi Peace Initiative to make it more palatable for Israelis.
  2. Netanyahu is signaling that he is not averse to opening new peace talks that would involve changes to the Saudi plan, so long as regional Arab leaders are the primary players in the talks, not the French.
  3. At the same time, however, Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas is privately indicating that he will soon need to step down from power. "My age and health don't allow me to remain in power," the 81-year-old Abbas recently told Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi. "My term in office expired several years ago and I'm still in power only because of the Hamas, which staged a coup and is controlling the Gaza Strip and refusing to allow new elections."
  4. The possibility that Abbas could soon step off the political stage could add a destabilizing factor into the mix, especially if the battle to succeed Abbas becomes heated, or even violent.
  5. Who will the next Palestinian leader be? Would he (or she) be more or less ready to strike a compromise with Israel? Would he or she encourage violent opposition to Israel, or encourage calm and reconciliation?
  6. Meanwhile, critics of Netanyahu are asking, "How serious is Bibi about really making peace?" His enemies say Bibi will never negotiate in good faith. But those close to him say he's ready for an honest dialogue, and note that it was Menachem Began (the first leader of the Likud Party) who made peace with Egypt in 1979. [NOTE: I'm not taking a position on any of these internal political questions -- who's right? who's wrong? -- I'm just pointing out some of the trend lines I think are noteworthy.]
  7. The week began looking like Netanyahu would create a "unity" government with Israeli opposition leader Isaac Herzog, who is personally determined to find a peace deal with the Palestinians. But in a dramatic and unexpected reversal mid-week, Netanyahu decided to make a deal with right-wing leader Avigdor Liberman and his Yisrael Beitenu ("Israel Our Home") party instead of Herzog. Liberman is now slated to be Defense Minister, if the deal is finalized. This news has triggered a firestorm. Herzog is furious with Bibi. Current Defense Minister Moshe "Bogie" Ya'alon is, too.Ya'alon resigned the government rather than accept his imminent demotion or even change of position, and Ya'alon had harsh words for both Netanyahu and Liberman.
  8. Many in Israel and the region regard Liberman as an acerbic, controversial, polarizing figure, and someone not known for being eager to make peace with the Palestinians or even other Arab states. To Bibi's enemies, the offer to Liberman is proof Bibi and his government will never make peace.
  9. In these circumstances, then, one could imagine that the notion of Bibi including Liberman into his government -- especially instead of Herzog, who believes that a "rare" chance to make regional peace is emerging -- will sabotage whatever slowly improving ties there have been between Israel and the moderate Arab states.
  10. That may still prove the case. But at the moment, the Arab states are reaching out to Bibi, despite of the Liberman/Ya'alon brouhaha. This is intriguing, to say the least.
  11. At the moment, it's Egyptian President el-Sisi who is taking the lead in communicating with Netanyahu. Earlier this week, the Egyptian leader publicly called on Israelis and Palestinians to come back to the negotiating table, and offered to help mediate those discussions. Netanyahu immediately responded positively to the suggestion. Sisi and Netanyahu then spoke on Friday when Netanyahu called to offer condolences over the crash of an Egyptian jetliner this week, a crash that may have been the result of terrorism, though the investigation has only just begun.
  12. Jordan's King Abdullah II, currently on a state visit to Europe, has been quiet so far this week. That said, recent media reports (see hereherehere and here) indicate that behind the scenes he senses the environment for talks is improving and is quietly encouraging the peace process to begin again.
  13. As I wrote on Tuesdaysomething does appear to be afoot between Israel and her Sunni Arab neighbors. Where will it lead? I genuinely don't know. But I am praying for peace because the Bible commands me to and because I truly want there to be calm and security and prosperity and genuine freedom and opportunity for everyone in the region. I hope you will join me in praying along these lines, as well.
[This column is based on my personal views and analysis. I share them in my personal capacity as an American and Israeli citizen and an author. They do not reflect the views of The Joshua Fund, which is a non-profit organization and takes no political or legislative positions.]
  • "Moderate Sunni Arab governments in the region have communicated to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu their willingness to engage in negotiations with Israel over possible changes to the Saudi peace initiative so that it may serve as the agreed-upon basis of renewed talks with the Palestinians," reports the Jerusalem Post, based on a story first reported by Channel 10 on Friday....
  • Arab regimes led by Egypt and the wealthy Gulf sheikhdoms have signaled their desire to publicly change their posture toward Israel, according to Channel 10.
  • Officials in Arab capitals are now awaiting Netanyahu's response to their offer of substantive discussions on the Saudi initiative so as to make it more palatable for Israel.
  • During a Twitter chat he held in the courtyard of his Jerusalem home in honor of Israel’s 68th Independence Day, Netanyahu said Israel is ready to talk about an amended Saudi peace initiative.
  • One of the questioners asked him in Arabic about the 2002 Saudi Initiative, otherwise known as the Arab Peace Plan, which calls for a two-state solution on the pre-1967 lines with a just settlement for Palestinian refugees. In exchange the Arab world would offer Israel normalized relations.
  • “Why don’t you accept the Arab initiative and what are the reasons why it is not implemented,” Twitter questioner @abosarah7 asked.
  • Netanyahu responded, also in Arabic, that an updated initiative which “addresses our concerns merits further discussion. Israel will always seek peace.”.....
  • In response to Sam Rubinstein from Brown University, Netanyahu said in a short video response, “I am willing to meet President Abbas today, right now. He can come to my home here in Jerusalem or I can go to his home here in Ramallah. Now I want you to forward that question to President Abbas and see what he says, #askAbbas.”
  • Channel 10 cites Western diplomatic sources as saying that a number of emissaries have relayed conciliatory Arab messages to Netanyahu, one of them being former British premier Tony Blair.
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joelcrosenberg | May 20, 2016 at 9:34 pm | Categories: Epicenter | URL: http://wp.me/piWZ7-4U5

Monday, April 25, 2016

Joel C. Rosenberg's Blog: How did my visit with Jordan’s King Abdullah come about & what did I learn about this Sunni Arab ally? My interview with Fox News.

FOXNEWS-Joel-April2016-2

New post on Joel C. Rosenberg's Blog

How did my visit with Jordan’s King Abdullah come about & what did I learn about this Sunni Arab ally? My interview with Fox News.

by joelcrosenberg
(Jerusalem, Israel) -- On Sunday, I was interviewed on the Fox News Channel to discuss President Obama's latest trip to the Middle East, my recent visit to Jordan to meet with King Abdullah, the op-ed I wrote for the Jerusalem Post about that trip, and The First Hostage.
You can watch the video of the interview by clicking here. Also, here is a transcript of the conversation I had with Fox anchor Shannon Bream:
SHANNON BREAM: Germany is the last stop on President Obama's three-country tour. He began the week, of course, with a bit of a tense trip to Saudi Arabia, as that region faces numerous critical challenges.
Tucked in the midst of all the trouble is Jordan, where King Abdullah II is not only managing the influx of more than a million refugees, but also waging a constant battle against the threats from ISIS. There are growing questions about why the U.S. and -- in that region -- more Arab nations aren't stepping up to do more to help the man who has been viewed as our most faithful Sunni Arab ally.
Joel Rosenberg, best-selling author...met days ago with King Abdullah and came away with some key insights and joins us now live from Jerusalem. Welcome to you, Joel.
ROSENBERG: Great to be with you, Shannon. Shalom from Jerusalem.
BREAM: And listen, let me ask you -- you had an unbelievable amount of access, a special invitation from King Abdullah. Tell us a little bit about what you saw, and what kind of viewpoint it gives you now, on exactly what Jordan and that region is facing.
ROSENBERG: It was fascinating. King Abdullah in January was given a copy of my recent novel, The First Hostage, which is about ISIS -- the Islamic State -- trying to capture chemical weapons in Syria and launch an attack against the United States, Israel and Jordan, and even try to topple King Abdullah. A friend of his, an advisor to him, gave him the book, and he read it in just a few days. And rather than banning me from the kingdom, invited my wife and I on a five day visit. It was fascinating.
Look, King Abdullah is our most faithful Sunni Arab ally, and yet he faces enormous challenges. All of us in this region face the threat of ISIS, but Jordan, you know -- ISIS's roots run deep in Jordan. Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the man who invented ISIS -- then called Al Qaeda in Iraq -- was from Jordan. So the king faces a huge challenge, but I think he is up for it. I spent time with him, having lunch with him, having dinner with him, meeting with many of his top generals. He's a Special Forces guy. He was the head of Special Forces in Jordan before he took the throne. But he needs more American, Arab and international help.
BREAM: Yeah, and we have such a delicate score of relationships across that region, as you know. You know about the visit to Saudi Arabia this week, the tensions that are there. We also have word this week that the U.S. has spent more than $8 million purchasing heavy water nuclear materials from Iran, and some people see a link there between the meetings with Saudi Arabia, the pressure regarding Iran, and now this new purchase at a time when a lot of people here still aren't sold on the overall nuke deal that we just made with them.
ROSENBERG: Yes, what is surprising almost every Sunni Arab leader in the region -- and certainly Israel, as well -- is why is the President of the United States tipping away from our historic allies -- Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf emirates, and again obviously Israel, as our most faithful ally in the entire region -- and tipping all this effort to help Iran? And not taking decisive measures to destroy ISIS once and for all? ISIS and a nuclear Iran pose existential threats to every leader, and every person, in this region, as well as to the United States. And yet the President keeps tipping -- when push comes to shove, he's going with Iran these days. This is a huge mistake. It bothers me. It bothers many in this region.
BREAM: Well, Joel, we thank you so much for giving us some insights. You've written an op-ed that gives even more about that amazing trip you had with the King. And you know how I feel about The First Hostage. I can understand why after reading it he would have invited you. It is a great read. People will be entertained, as they always are with your books, but they will learn a lot about what we're really facing, as well. Joel, thank you for joining us live from Jerusalem.
ROSENBERG: Thank you.
[NOTE: During the interview, Fox News I identified me several times as a "former advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu." While it's true that I worked as an aide to him in 2000, that was more than 15 years ago. I want viewers to be clear that I don't claim to speak for Mr. Netanyahu in any way. My views are wholly my own.]
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joelcrosenberg | April 25, 2016 at 1:11 pm | Categories: Uncategorized | URL: http://wp.me/piWZ7-4AJ