Showing posts with label nuclear bomb. Show all posts
Showing posts with label nuclear bomb. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 15, 2015

World strikes final “historic” nuclear deal with Iran. Will it bring peace, or war? - Joel Rosenberg

World strikes final “historic” nuclear deal with Iran. Will it bring peace, or war? Here are my initial thoughts.

by joelcrosenberg
Delegates from Iran and a group of six nations led by the United States in Vienna on Tuesday after reaching an accord.   Credit Carlos Barria/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images  (NYT)
Delegates from Iran and a group of six nations led by the United States in Vienna on Tuesday after reaching an accord.
Credit Carlos Barria/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images (NYT)
(Central Israel) -- Lynn and I flew back home to Israel today, and arrived just as the news was breaking that the international community has struck a final nuclear deal with Iran.
Will it bring peace, or war? I am still reading through the 100-page agreement and will have more analysis later. But here are a few initial comments and observations.
President Obama and his team are convinced they have cut off Iran's path to The Bomb and that the world will now enter a season of peace and stability. "Today after two years of negotiation the United States together with the international community has achieved something that decades of animosity has not: a comprehensive long-term deal with Iran that will prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon," the president said.
The Iranian leadership is euphoric -- they are calling the agreement "historic," and celebrating their victory over the West. No wonder. They got nearly everything they wanted and gave up no serious concessions. Under this deal, Iran can continue enriching uranium. They don't have to dismantle any nuclear facilities -- not a single one. They don't have to shut down their ballistic missile factories or dismantle any of their ballistic missiles. They don't have to promise to stop funding and supporting international terrorism. 
They don't have to release a single American citizen held in Iran -- not Pastor Saeed or the Washington Post reporter on trial for his life or any of the others. The list goes on and on.
The Israeli government is also calling the deal historic -- "a stunning historic mistake." In the car ride from the airport to our home, Lynn and I listened to a live radio broadcast of Prime Minister Netanyahu addressing the nation. Here are some of the highlights:
  • "Israel is not bound by this deal with Iran and Israel is not bound by this deal with Iran because Iran continues to seek our destruction."
  • "This deal repeats the mistakes made with North Korea. There too we were assured that inspections and verifications would prevent a rogue regime from developing nuclear weapons. And we all know how that ended."
  • "In the coming decade, the deal will reward Iran, the terrorist regime in Tehran, with hundreds of billions of dollars. This cash bonanza will fuel Iran’s terrorism worldwide, its aggression in the region and its efforts to destroy Israel, which are ongoing."
  • "Amazingly, this bad deal does not require Iran to cease its aggressive behavior in any way. And just last Friday, that aggression was on display for all to see. While the negotiators were closing the deal in Vienna, Iran’s supposedly moderate president chose to go to a rally in Tehran and at this rally, a frenzied mob burned American and Israeli flags and chanted ‘Death to America, Death to Israel!’ Now, this didn’t happen four years ago. It happened four days ago."
Does Netanyahu's remarks signal military action against Iran is coming, and/or coming soon? That's not clear. But it cannot be ruled out. Israeli leaders certainly want to find a way to neutralize the Iran nuclear threat without using force. But Israel has successfully used preemptive air strikes to destroy two foreign nuclear facilities over the years, in Iraq in 1981, and in Syria in 2007. The possibility of an Israeli preemptive strike against Iran has just gone up significantly.
Readers of this blog know that I wrote a trilogy of political thrillers several years ago -- The Twelfth ImamThe Tehran Initiative, and Damascus Countdown -- imagining what might happen if a foolish American President inadvertently allowed Iran to secretly build a small arsenal of nuclear weapons, and an Israeli Prime Minister decided he had no other option than to launch a massive preemptive strike against Iran
Still, that was fiction. I pray that nothing in those novels will come to pass. I certainly don't wish for a war with Iran, especially now that my family and I live in Israel. Indeed, I'm praying for a peaceful resolution to this mounting crisis, and I'm asking the Lord to move mightily to bring down this evil regime in Tehran and end the nuclear threat through any means other than war. But the Lord may allow a war to come. Leaders in this region -- both Israeli and Arab -- may conclude a preemptive war soon would be far preferable to a nuclear war with Iran later. 
So we must be ready for whatever comes next. I hope you will join me in praying for "the peace of Jerusalem," as the Psalmist commands us in Psalm 122:6. Pray, too, for wisdom for the leaders in this region to know how best to deal with this challenge. And pray that the people and leaders of the region turn to the Lord for His wisdom and His grace and salvation, not their own.
Again, I will post more analysis in the days ahead as I work my way through the agreement, and as we see how other leaders and nations react to the deal. For now, let me share with you what the former head of Israeli military intelligence noted in assessing the situation: "There are three likely scenarios for where the world goes from here," notes Amos Yadlin.
  1. Iran somehow transforms itself into a less malign state and constructively engages with the family of nations. Unfortunately, this is highly unlikely.
  2. Iran decides in a few years to renege on its commitments, as North Korea did in 2003. If Tehran calculates that the gains of this approach outweigh the retaliation it would provoke by the West, there is no doubt they will go for the bomb. Israel and the international community must maintain a credible military option at all times to stop Iran producing a nuclear weapon.
  3. Iran plays it safe, keeping to the letter if not the spirit of the agreement, while waiting for any restrictions on it to expire in a decade. While doing this, Iran improves its technological know-how, continues to sponsor terrorism, and calls for the destruction of Israel.
"The deal and the lifting of sanctions on Tehran will pour more than $100 billion into Iran," notes Yadlin. "Even a fraction of that sum will triple the budgets of terrorists such as Assad, Hizbullah and Hamas."
He adds: "Israel learned long ago that taking out a nuclear program doesn't equate to war."
Developing......
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joelcrosenberg | July 14, 2015 at 5:30 pm | Categories: Uncategorized | URL:http://wp.me/piWZ7-3jE

Has the agreement with Iran placed military options back on the table?

Has the agreement with Iran placed military options back on the table?

Wednesday, July 15, 2015 |  Israel Today Staff
The world has placed the fate of the Middle East in the hands of the regime in Tehran, which is not trustworthy. Most Israeli commentators are of this opinion and appalled by the agreement, which has been concluded with Tehran by the P5 + 1 world powers. The agreement does not keep Iran from attaining nuclear capability, neither does it reign in its nuclear infrastructure. While US President Barack Obama celebrates the biggest foreign policy success of his tenure, once again there is talk in Israel of a possible military strike against Iran.
"Israel should take the necessary precautions, if Iran violates the agreement," writes columnist Ron Ben-Yishai in the news portal Ynetnews. From Israel's perspective, the agreement has brought the military option back to the table. "The Israeli government will have to decide whether it wants to attack Iran or not, if the ayatollahs decide to build a nuclear bomb." According to experts, Iran currently needs about a year to build a nuclear weapon and use it. If Iran violates the agreement and secretly continues to enrich uranium, the regime could build a nuclear device much faster. We are talking about a matter of a few weeks.
In Tehran, people cheered and celebrated the imminent end of the sanctions with processions and motorcades. In Jerusalem Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized again that the world's future is now more uncertain because of the Agreement, the international community has committed a mistake of historic proportions. Germany's Foreign Minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier rejected Israel's criticism and stated that any Iranian bid for an atom bomb will be excluded reliable and verifiable for the foreseeable future. "I can say with full conviction, that this is an agreement that brings security to the world, the region and even the neighbors of Iran," said Steinmeier.
In the mainstream media the agreement is being hailed as an historic breakthrough and are accusing Netanyahu of fomenting fear of Iran for domestic political reasons, having ensured Netanyahu three electoral victories. Emphasis has been placed on the substantive achievements of the agreement with Tehran: The number of centrifuges being reduced by two thirds, the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors being granted access to all sites and the UN arms embargo remaining in force for another five years. In return, the sanctions will be gradually lifted, but can again take effect in the case of infringements of the agreement at any time.
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Tuesday, April 7, 2015

Obama: 'Recognizing Israel' Too Much to Ask

Obama: 'Recognizing Israel' Too Much to Ask

AP file photo
JERUSALEM, Israel -- President Obama rejected Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's suggestion that Iran accept Israel's right to exist as part of the emerging nuclear deal, labeling the request a "misjudgment."
 
Netanyahu had called for a "clear and unambiguous Iranian recognition of Israel's right to exist" as part of any final deal with the Islamic Republic.
 
"The survival of Israel is non-negotiable," Netanyahu said in response to the framework agreement the president calls a "once in a lifetime" opportunity.
 
"Just two days ago, Iran said that 'the destruction of Israel is non-negotiable.' And in these fateful days, Iran is accelerating the arming of its terror proxies [Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip] to attack Israel," Netanyahu said.
 
"This deal would legitimize Iran's nuclear program, bolster Iran's economy and increase Iran's aggression and terror throughout the Middle East and beyond," he said.
 
But Obama says asking Iran to recognize Israel is tantamount to saying "we won't sign a deal unless the nature of the Iranian regime completely transforms."
 
In a videotaped greeting last month on the celebration of Norwuz, the Persian New Year, Obama called it an historic time for repairing U.S.-Iranian relations.

Thursday, April 2, 2015

Apocalyptic Betrayals

Apocalyptic Betrayals

Tuesday, March 31, 2015 |  Noah Beck  ISRAEL TODAY
President Obama’s far-reaching efforts to facilitate Iran’s march to nukes amount to nothing less than apocalyptic betrayals of U.S. voters and allies – betrayals that will make the world exponentially more dangerous.
Obama has ignored the countless reasons to doubt that the ayatollahs will make and keep a nuclear accord that prevents them from acquiring nuclear weapons. Here are just some of those reasons: 
1) Iran’s president Hassan Rouhani boasted about his own role in exploiting diplomatic talks to advance Iran’s nuclear program
3) Iran recently tried – in a single transaction – to buy know-how for nukes and impunity for one of its biggest terrorist attacks. 
5) thanks to Iranian involvement in the recent Houthi-rebel takeover of Yemen, Iran’s ever-expanding hegemony now reaches four Arab countries, and 
The Saudis have warned that the current deal will spark a Mideast nuclear arms race. It could also hasten the era of nuclear terrorism. There are already reports that ISIS has resorted to attacks with chemical weapons (hardly surprising after Obama’s “red lines” on Syria’s chemical weapons use turned white). Iran could provide nuclear material – in addition to a nuclear umbrella – to its proxy terrorist group, Hezbollah. For these and other grave concerns, Netanyahu risked his political career on a speech before Congress that explained why the deal is so bad. 
Yet rather than address legitimate reservations about the emerging Iranian nuclear deal, Obama prefers to hold Bibi to his Israeli election slogans about a Palestinian state as if Obama hadn’t himself broken countless campaign promises, including his own oft-repeated commitment (to voters and allies alike) that he would prevent Iran from going nuclear. Breaching his promise to everyone, Obama has embraced a process that makes Iran a threshold nuclear state. 
Instead of questioning the intentions of the same theocratic regime that held 52 Americans hostage for 444 days, the Obama administration has whitewashed Iran’s terrorist activities/record, and accepted Rouhani as a "moderate" even though human rights in Iran have actually worsened under his rule
Despite Obama’s attempts to influence the outcome of Israel’s free elections, no Israeli government, regardless of the political parties that comprise it, can live with the existential threat posed by a nuclear Iran. And world powers are closer than ever to forcing an Israeli military response to that danger because they have buckled rather than created sufficient diplomatic and economic pressure to persuade Iran to dismantle its nuclear program.  
Iran has made steady progress on its nukes despite decades of sanctions, UN Security Council resolutions, IAEA inspections, and negotiations. The most successful strategy for stopping Iran’s nuclear march was the very real threat of force in 2003. After the U.S. military quickly trounced Iraq, neighboring Iran was deterred from continuing its nuclear activities, until it concluded that the U.S. military threat had dissipated.  
Under Obama, the weakest U.S. president since Jimmy Carter, there is no credible military threat, as his actions in Syria, Ukraine, and elsewhere have shown.
That reality will force Israel to take military action against Iran’s nukes – either in the absence of a nuclear deal or despite the bad one under consideration (which paves Iran’s path to the bomb with legitimacy while isolating Israel). Some think that Israel will refrain from attacking because a military strike would, at best, set back Iranian nukes by a few years. But that is a specious argument for two reasons: 
1) Like “mowing the grass” with Hamas’ military buildups in Gaza, Israel may simply have to take military action every few years, 
2) the Iranians may eventually stop trying to develop nukes, after realizing that it’s a huge waste of resources to build nuclear facilities that Israel will eventually destroy. 
Despite all of the risks of attacking Iran’s nuclear program, doing nothing will be riskier to Israel’s survival because the world’s most dangerous regime then acquires the world’s most dangerous weapons. 
The Jewish nation knows all too well the dangers of ignoring genocidal threats, and Iran, the world’s chief sponsor of terrorism, has repeatedly threatened to destroy Israel. By making Iran a nuclear threshold state, the proposed deal leaves the ayatollahs with the ability to carry out that threat and therefore compels an Israeli attack. However, because Israel’s capabilities are far more limited than those of the U.S. military, Israel won’t be able to prevent Iranian retribution when destroying Iran’s nukes. 
What follows is a nuclear World War III. Iran will retaliate with an overwhelming barrage of potent, long-range ballistic missiles on Israel’s population centers, and will likely also target the Israeli nuclear reactor in Dimona (which action could itself produce massive casualties). Hezbollah, which has about 100,000 long-range missiles supplied by Iran, will add to the unstoppable downpour of missiles. For all of their impressive successes, Israeli missile defense systems simply cannot handle such a huge number of incoming missiles, and so there will be thousands of dead. 
The world, as usual, will do nothing but excoriate Israel and call for restraint, leaving Israel with countless casualties. Adjusted for population differences, ten thousand dead in tiny Israel is like about 400,000 killed in the USA. At that point (if not much sooner), Israel will feel that it’s very survival requires nuking Tehran and a few other major cities, which would destroy the regime along with maybe a million people. 
The Sunni countries threatened by Shiite Iran’s hegemonic aggression in the region may have already entered the fray at that point, or would do so soon after, and the centuries-old Sunni-Shia conflict would explode throughout the region even more than it already has. It’s not clear how the war eventually ends, but there will be even more chaos as failed states and radical extremism spread across the Middle East. The price of oil will skyrocket to unseen levels, and none of this will be good for U.S. interests. 
Absurdly enough, the U.S. could probably prevent such a doomsday scenario by simply asserting an ultimatum backed by very credible military force. If Iran does not, within a week after the expiration of the current talks, allow inspectors unfettered access to all of its nuclear facilities and then cooperate in their destruction (with compensation and a set of economic and political rewards for that cooperation), then the U.S. military will, with overwhelming military force, destroy the entire Iranian military infrastructure (including its nuclear program) and work towards the downfall of the regime. 
If the U.S. can make such a threat credibly, then Iran will acquiesce, no actual force will be needed, and the decades-long Iranian nuclear threat will finally end.
But, unlike apocalyptic betrayals, such a bold show of force is unthinkable for Obama, and so we could be looking at a nuclear World War III in the not-too-distant future. 
Noah Beck is the author of The Last Israelis, an apocalyptic novel about Iranian nukes and other geopolitical issues in the Middle East.
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Wednesday, March 4, 2015

Iran’s leaders reject Obama deal, calling it “unacceptable.” - Joel Rosenberg's latest Post

Iran’s leaders reject Obama deal, calling it “unacceptable.” It’s been a bizarre few days. Here’s the latest.

by joelcrosenberg
US Secretary of State John Kerry meets with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, for a new round of nuclear negotiations on Monday, March 2, 2015. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
US Secretary of State John Kerry meets with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, for a new round of nuclear negotiations on Monday, March 2, 2015. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
(Washington, D.C.) -- Consider the odd developments of the past few days:
  • The leader of our most faithful and trusted ally comes to Washington to warn of a mortal and rising threat from a dangerous and deceiving enemy.
  • The President of the United States refuses to meet with him.
  • The President sends his VP out of the country to avoid our ally.
  • The President sends the Secretary of State out of the country to avoid our ally, and instead to meet with our enemy.
  • The President refuses to allow any of his Cabinet Members attend the speech by our ally.
  • The White House pressures Members of Congress to boycott the speech of our ally.
  • The President's first comment after the ally's speech is that he didn't bother to watch or listen to it.
  • If I had written that as a novel, would anyone buy it? Of course not. They would say, "That's ridiculous! That's not credible! No President would act that way."
Yet this is exactly what is happening. Truth is stranger than fiction.
Now comes the news that even though President Obama is bending over backwards to make concessions to Iran, the Iranian leadership has now utterly rejected the President's deal, calling it "unacceptable." That's the first thing Iran and Israel have every agreed on. More on that in a moment.
A radio host asked me this morning: Did Israel's Prime Minister come to Congress to boost his political fortunes because he's in a neck-and-neck race back home? No. That's not it.
Mr. Netanyahu came because he believes Israel is in mortal danger if Iranian leaders driven by "Apocalyptic Islam" are able to build atomic weapons and the high-speed missiles to deliver them. Netanyahu knew there was a huge risk in coming to the U.S. amidst such controversy. But he also knows that if he does not come back to power as Prime Minister after March 17th that he would never be able to forgive himself if he failed to use his time in office to raise the alarm and urge his friends, the American people, to stop Iran from getting The Bomb, rather than putting Iran on a legal pathway to The Bomb.
The Bible says in Ezekiel 33:1-9 that if the watchman on the wall sees a threat emerging, he must warn people, or he will be held to account. In the Bible, Mordechai urged Queen Esther to intercede with the King to try to save the Jewish people. She bravely spoke the truth to power. The Bible tells us that God sent Moses to speak to the Pharoah to save the Jewish people. Moses risked his life to speak truth to power. In the 1930s, Winston Churchill warned of the gathering storm of Adolf Hitler & the Nazi Third Reich. Few listened but Churchill was right. In the 1960s & 70s, Ronald Reagan warned us of the danger of appeasing Soviet communism. Few listened, but Reagan was right.
True "watchmen on the wall" often walk a lonely journey. But they are motivated not by crass personal ambition, but by deep personal conviction.
Now, back to Iran rejecting the President's deal.
According to Reuters, "Iran rejected on Tuesday as 'unacceptable' U.S. President Barack Obama's demand that it freeze sensitive nuclear activities for at least 10 years but said it would continue talks on a deal, Iran's semi-official Fars news agency reported. Iran laid out the position as the U.S. and Iranian foreign ministers met for a second day of negotiations and as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered a stinging critique of the agreement they are trying to hammer out."
"Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry met a day after Obama told Reuters that Iran must commit to a verifiable halt of at least 10 years on sensitive nuclear work for a landmark atomic deal to be reached," Reuters noted."
"Iran will not accept excessive and illogical demands," Zarif was quoted by Fars as saying.
Wouldn't it be ironic if Iran saves us from this dangerous, disastrous deal?
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joelcrosenberg | March 4, 2015 at 3:37 pm | Categories: Uncategorized | URL:http://wp.me/piWZ7-3eU

Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Netanyahu in US for 'Fateful, Historic Mission'

Netanyahu in US for 'Fateful, Historic Mission'


One day before his address to the U.S. Congress, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu received a rousing reception Monday at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) gathering in Washington.

After weeks of controversy over his appearance in the capital, Netanyahu downplayed differences with President Barack Obama, saying the strong bond between Israel and the United States will continue in spite of deep differences over the approach to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

"My speech is not intended to show any disrespect to President Obama or the office he holds," Netanyahu said. "I have deep respect for both. I am deeply grateful for his support and show should you be."

What should you expect from Netanyahu's speech before Congress Tuesday? Sr. Political Editor John Waage has more.



Israel's second-longest serving prime minister also highlighted sharp disagreements between U.S. and Israeli leaders in the past, including Secretary of State George Marshall's "vehement" objection to Israel's declaration of statehood in 1948, which Israeli Prime Minister went ahead with over Marshall's protest.

About Iran, Netanyahu said it "envelops the entire world with its tentacles of terror."

"This is what Iran is doing now without nuclear weapons. Imagine what Iran would do with nuclear weapons. And this same Iran vows to annihilate Israel. If it develops nuclear weapons, it would have the means to achieve that goal. We must not let that happen."

For the Israeli prime minister, this trip to the U.S. is a "fateful, even historic, mission."

Netanyahu says he sees himself as an emissary for all Israelis and for the Jewish people. His mission, he believes, is to protect Israel and the Jewish people from the threat of a nuclear Iran.

"As prime minister of Israel, it is my obligation to see to the security of Israel; therefore, we strongly oppose the agreement being formulated with Iran and the major powers, which could endanger our [Notes:Israel's] very existence. In the face of this danger we must unite and also explain the dangers stemming from this agreement, to Israel, to the region and to the world," he said before boarding his flight.

Netanyahu arrived in Washington on Sunday evening ahead of his speeches at the pro-Israel lobby, AIPAC, and what has become a politically controversial address to Congress Tuesday on Iran.

Democrat lawmakers reportedly plan to sit out Netanyahu's speech, calling it an affront to the president because it was allegedly set up without consulting the White House.

Netanyahu considers any deal with Iran that doesn't end its ability to produce nuclear weapons unacceptable -- a clear contrast to the diplomatic negotiations that President Barack Obama is spearheading to try to make a deal with Iran over that program.

And according to a Bethlehem-based news agency, a Kuwaiti newspaper reported Saturday that Obama prevented an Israeli military attack on Iran's nuclear facilities in 2014 by threatening to shoot down Israeli jets before they could reach their targets.

Meanwhile, Secretary of State John Kerry said the diplomatic nuclear deal with Iran will help ensure Israel's security.

"We want to recognize the main goal here is to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. And on that, Israel and the United States agree. And the testimony, in fact, to the efficiency with which we've been able to pursue that is the interim agreement that is in place today. Israel is safer today because of the interim agreement that we created," Kerry stated.

U.S. and Iranian officials reported progress in the latest talks on a deal that would freeze Iran's nuclear program for 10 years but then allow it to slowly restart during the final years.

Netanyahu hopes to encourage U.S. lawmakers to question the administration's plan and delay the March 24 deadline for an agreement.

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Report: Saudis Ready to Help Israel Attack Iran

Report: Saudis Ready to Help Israel Attack Iran

Thursday, February 26, 2015 |  Israel Today Staff
European officials say that Saudi Arabia is just as concerned as Israel over the details of the nuclear agreement the Obama Administration is currently negotiating with Iran, and is even prepared to facilitate an Israeli airstrike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, should it come to that.
“The Saudis have declared their readiness for the Israeli Air Force to overfly Saudi air space en route to attack Iran if an attack is necessary,” an unnamed senior European diplomat was cited as saying by Israel’s Channel 2 News.
The source added that Saudi Arabia is “completely coordinated with Israel on all matters related to Iran.”
The one condition Riyadh reportedly had for providing this kind of assistance is some kind of tangible progress in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
The report, if credible, is a major blow to the Obama Administration, which insists that Israel’s urgent criticism of its proposed deal with Iran is unwarranted.
“Anybody running around right now jumping in to say, ‘Well we don’t like the deal,’ or this or that, doesn’t know what the deal is,” US Secretary of State John Kerry told a congressional hearing on Tuesday.
Israel’s Minister of Strategic Affairs, Yuval Steinitz, responded by suggesting that perhaps it’s Kerry that lacks the full picture.
“We know all we need to know, and we have an excellent picture of the negotiations,” Steinitz told Israeli media. “Maybe [Kerry] doesn’t know everything we know.”
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